Box Office Forecast – The Batman Prediction

What will The Batman make at the Domestic and Worldwide box office? (see below). Well this prediction is particularly tricky, things are still drastically unpredictable in todays climate but you can feel pretty confident that The Batman will overcome many of its obstacles.

Since May 1939, Batman has been an iconic centerpiece in pop culture and no one can dispute the influence of the character over the past seven decades. Along those years, the batman has had some incredible runs at the box office and also, notably, some not-so-incredible runs.

Matt Reeves gritty and noir-esque take on The Batman releases in just under a month on Thursday 3rd March (New Zealand).

I will be diving into the advantages and disadvantages for The Batman’s upcoming box office run.

Advantages:

  • You can, at no costs, underestimate the Batman character. There is zero debate that the character has high amount of name value and is one of the most recognizable characters in history. Any film that contains the Batman will immediately have a boost of interest from the general audience.
  • An incredible marketing campaign. The Batman brand has been negatively affected following his storyline in the DCEU (but we’ll get to that later) but the marketing campaign has made it very clear that this is a completely new interpretation of the character. There is a keen sense of interest from the audiences beyond the die-hard fans to dive into this fresh representation of the Batman. Tracking surround interest generated from social media can back this up.
  • Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness moved from its late March release day, essentially giving The Batman the entirety of March without any significant competition. A common trend of the box office during the Covid-19 pandemic is that films have really struggled having any legs to their box office run as they have dropped significantly – particularly the films that have had day-and-date releases.
  • Which leads me towards the theatrical exclusive release strategy for The Batman. Thank goodness, Warner Brothers has abandoned the day-and-date release strategy with HBOmax for all of its 2022 films. Theatrically exclusive releases have had stronger holds on a weekend to weekend basis – including such films as Free Guy, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, A Quiet Place: Part II and of course, Spider-Man: No Way Home.
  • This may come as an extremely ‘light’ advantage due to the nature of it but the surge of the Omicron variant has been trending downwards recently. With another month still to go before The Batman releases, it may just be at a level that provides some confidence for moviegoers in their personal safety.

Disadvantages:

  • As per usual, it is still important to consider the affects of this pandemic and I intend to note this down as a disadvantage for every upcoming tentpole release. Now, The Batman will still deliver a strong performance but Covid-19 will have a role to play closer to release time. We’ll see how it plays out – hopefully nothing but good news.
  • The Batman‘s runtime is officially two hours and fifty-five minutes which will inevitably result in fewer showtimes each day. With quite an empty release schedule during The Batman‘s release tenure, exhibitors may allocate additional screens to showcasing the film – particularly if there is a strong amount of interest. Word of mouth will be critical in retaining a high level of showtimes each day with cinemas.
  • The marketing for this film has been extraordinary and has completely done its job in building interest and convincing audiences to buy in to this new version of Batman. In saying that, it has raised expectations as it appears like an expertly crafted film (at least on a technical level) and what comes raised expectations? A hurdle for the final cut of the film to actually meet or exceed those expectations and a higher risk at being negatively perceived.
  • The Batman received a PG-13 rating (M rating in New Zealand) due to “strong violent and disturbing content, drug content, strong language, and some suggestive material”. While this rating allows for younger audiences to see this movie, parents may think twice by allowing their children to view this darker version of the comic-book icon.
  • A major impact in the final worldwide total will be whether or not Warner Brothers can secure a release date for the film in China. Batman has never had a significant box office performance in China but as the second biggest film market, you can’t deny that it is extremely valuable to have your film playing there. The Joker never received a China release so I am not putting too much hope in whether it will get a release date.

The disadvantages for the films box office performance do appear like they can be easily mitigated and the advantages are clearly more overwhelming here. We expect a brilliant and lengthy run for The Batman despite, what feels like, bearish predictions.

FINAL PREDICTIONS:

Domestic Box Office:

Opening Weekend: $160 million

Total: $440 million

International Box Office:

Total: $710 million

Worldwide Box Office:

Total: $1.15 billion

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