Box Office Forecast – Top Gun: Maverick Prediction

Tom Cruise as Pete ‘Maverick’ Mitchell in Top Gun: Maverick – Courtesy of Paramount Plus.

How will Top Gun: Maverick perform at the box office? (see below). It truly feels like we have been waiting way too long for this film and that is probably because that first trailer debuted all the way back in 2019; when the world was a happier place. Nevertheless, Paramount Pictures clearly have faith in this film and are waiting to exclusively release the film in cinemas on Memorial Day weekend.

I will be diving into the advantages and disadvantages for Top Gun: Maverick’s upcoming box office run.

Advantages:

  • Obviously, the original film. Despite its release 36 years ago in 1986, it has since become a pop culture icon that released in an emerging era for Hollywood blockbuster filmmaking. Top Gun (1986) made $176 million during its original run which is insanely high for that year and the run had really small drops each weekend.
  • The critical acclaim, as of writing this forecast, Top Gun: Maverick stands at 97% (8.5/10 average rating) on Rotten Tomatoes with 99 reviews. That is comparable to another Tom Cruise film in Mission Impossible: Fallout which also has 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, which translated to the audience and therefore, had a nice lengthy box office run. If the high critical acclaim is also manifested within the general audience then who knows just how high the box office ceiling is.
  • Tom Cruise and practical stunts – this is essentially the bread and butter of the box office success behind Tom Cruise. He is one of the few actors left that stars in performative stunt-work and continues to go beyond the limits. The aerial cinematography and real-world stunt-work creates an absorbing atmosphere in which the marketing has captured this film as a cinematic experience.

Disadvantages:

  • The demographics that may represent the film’s box office may be fairly limited as the original film released in 1986 so that level of familiarity with younger viewers won’t be so high. Word of mouth is king to attracting demographics outside the target audience but will Top Gun: Maverick make waves with younger audiences?
  • A blockbuster juggernaut in Jurassic World: Dominion releases only two weeks after Top Gun: Maverick which will dominate the marketplace. Now reviews are extremely high and assuming word of mouth matches those results, is it enough to give it a lengthy box office run? Hard to say, so many factors that need to be determined before making that assessment. With popular releases quickly on its horizon and a shortened theatrical release model, Top Gun: Maverick may be limited in its hopes of a lengthy box office performance. 

With reviews already coming in for the film, it’s clear that it shouldn’t have too much trouble mitigating the disadvantages to its box office performance. If the film resonates with the audience in the same way it has critics, then the sky’s the limit (literally) for Top Gun: Maverick.

Final Predictions:

Domestic Box Office:

Opening Weekend: $105 million

Total: $310 million

International Box Office:

Total: $360 million

Worldwide Box Office:

Total: $670 million

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