Box Office Forecast – Jurassic World: Dominion Prediction

Jeff Goldblum as Ian Malcolm, Sam Neill as Alan Grant, Laura Dern as Ellie Sattler, Bryce Dallas Howard as Claire Dearing, Chris Pratt as Owen Grady, Isabella Sermon as Maisie Lockwood and DeWanda Wise as Kayla Watts in Jurassic World: Dominion – Courtesy of Universal Pictures.

How will Jurassic World: Dominion perform at the box office (see below)? Continuing on with our forecasting for the box office performances of the heavy hitters of 2022, we have the supposed finale of the Jurassic franchise. It brings me a lot of happiness to say I had never been more wrong with my Top Gun: Maverick box office prediction, and even then, I was high balling my prediction. I may cover that in a future piece as it may truly be one of the greatest box office stories of our time.

Back to the core franchise at hand, we have Jurassic World: Dominion which has some obstacles it’ll need to overcome even if it is one of the biggest IPs of our time. 

I will be diving into the advantages and disadvantages for Jurassic World: Dominion’s upcoming box office run.

Advantages:

  • The key one here is the IP it is based off – and that is obviously the Jurassic Park franchise. The Jurassic World franchise is a better indicator to make comparisons due to inflation and the modernity of its IP but both predecessors have been successful billion dollar films. Jurassic World earned $208 million opening weekend with a total of $653 million total domestically and $1.67 billion worldwide. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom earned $148 million opening weekend with a total of $417 million total domestically and $1.3 billion worldwide.
  • The finality of the series – the marketing for this film has been seriously weak and that will have an affect on these numbers. However, the film is being branded as the finale of the Jurassic franchise as it brings together. If that can convert to word-of-mouth then it gains some momentum towards its opening weekend. Bringing back the original cast will certainly help the overall interest during opening weekend.

Disadvantages:

  • Leaving my forecasting to the last minute has captured a better image of where this film is at on a box office level and especially its long-term perspective. That brings me to the film’s critical reviews which currently sit at 34% on 207 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and general word-of-mouth is spreading like wildfire. This sting will especially be stung as the tracking for pre-sale tickets have been significantly lower than the previous films so the film becomes more reliant on word-of-mouth for its opening weekend and beyond.
  • Competition – and that is with Top Gun: Maverick which (as I said before) is having one of the greatest runs in box office history. Other publications expect a third weekend around $45 – 60 million which is absurd in its own right but will actually cut into the potential of Jurassic World: Dominion, particularly with the older demographics. However, it will have priority on premium formats to help mitigate this. 

Reviews are here and they are extremely poor. General audiences’ word-of-mouth seems mediocre as a best case scenario so we can expect a high opening with a quick declining opening – particularly in a volatile market right now.

Domestic Box Office:

Opening Weekend: $115 million

Total: $290 million

International Box Office:

Total: $700 million

Worldwide Box Office:

Total: $990 million

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