Box Office Forecast – Lightyear Prediction

How will Lightyear perform at the box office? (see below). Thankfully, I had the assistance of extremely poor critical reviews to assist me in forecasting the opening and total box office for Jurassic World: Dominion. We are lucky enough to attend the Lightyear New Zealand premiere tomorrow, but for now, we will have to rely on the current twitter reactions from critics and fans.

Pixar knows that Toy Story is a money making machine and exploits the IP once again with Lightyear as it explores the origin story of the Buzz Lightyear character (prior to him becoming a toy). At least, that is how it is being pitched – we’ll see how the final product explores the character in its entirety. 

Being Pixar’s biggest IP, I will be diving into the advantages and disadvantages for Lightyear’s upcoming box office run.

Advantages: 

  • Buzz Lightyear + Toy Story = Automatic box office success story. At the end of the day, the film will still exceed its profit margin and therefore, continue the success of the IP. It is simply too powerful to stop at this point, similar to the Jurassic franchise.
  • Empty and starved marketplace. Sing 2 was the last high-tier animated film to be released in cinemas and families are hungry for a film to entertain the family through the holiday period. Lightyear’s position places itself in a positive position to target that demographic – at least, more preferable than the Minions: Rise of Gru opening a couple weeks later. 
  • Exclusively in cinemas – a first for a Pixar film since Onward in early 2020 (which was cut short). Finally, Disney and Pixar seem committed to bring their (arguably) biggest film since the pandemic to the big screen and that decision should entice Pixar hungry individuals to finally see their films on the big screen.

Disadvantages:

  • Marketplace – Look, Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World: Dominion will provide competition but Lightyear will mostly act as a perfect counterprogramming against those beasts. Its true competition comes in Minions: Rise of Gru which will steal significant business and pose a true threat to Lightyear. If word-of-mouth and critical reviews are high enough, it may counter this disadvantage. 
  • Potential limited theatrical release model – it is expected that Lightyear will be on Disney+ as soon as possible. Exhibitors won’t provide much leeway in these dates so it is expected that 45 days after release will be when it is available on Disney’s streaming platform. However, recent box office results may influence these decisions as we have seen Spider-Man: No Way Home & Top Gun: Maverick lengthy performances.

Lightyear will certainly have success in the box office market – the true determination we are making here is how high the ceiling really is for Pixar’s latest flick.

Domestic Box Office:

Opening Weekend: $110 million

Total: $340 million

International Box Office:

Total: $500 million

Worldwide Box Office:

Total: $840 million

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