Box Office Forecast – Thor: Love and Thunder Prediction

Chris Hemsworth as Thor in Thor: Love and Thunder – Courtesy of Disney

How will Thor: Love and Thunder perform at the box office? (see below). The box office is proving to be wildly unpredictable right now – I mean, Top Gun: Maverick is having an historic run, Jurassic World: Dominion withstanding incredibly harsh reviews and Lightyear just coming up extremely short. Thor: Love and Thunder is quickly approaching and everyone is anticipating the highly anticipated sequel – this should continue an excellent summer season at the box office.

Pre and Post pandemic, Marvel stands as a formidable box office juggernaut. Spider-Man: No Way Home became one of the biggest films of all-time at the box office and that was without the China market. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness has also done very solid numbers but projections held the film a little higher. 

We’ll see how Thor: Love and Thunder will do as I dive into the advantages and disadvantages it faces at the box office.

Advantages:

  • Do I really need to state it? The Marvel Cinematic Universe. At this point, the franchise juggernaut would struggle to produce a flop – even if it tried. 
  • Social Media Interactions are tracking highly – exceeding Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and the majority of solo-based MCU films (excluding Spider-Man: No Way Home). Another factor that I need to take into consideration is the trailer views which is the seventh most views accumulated in 24 hours (worldwide). Thor: Ragnarok was highly regarded by critics and fans alike – adding an extra boost to the anticipation for this film. 
  • The inclusion of major MCU characters such as the Guardians of the Galaxy and introducing anticipated comic-book characters such as Mighty Thor (Natalie Portman) and Gorr the God Butcher (Christian Bale). Adding in these other chess pieces elevates the film’s status as it feels more like a major crossover. 
  • Zero competition to worry about. A major success-factor for ‘post-pandemic’ releases is an emptier film slate and therefore, more time for films to earn more. Thor: Love and Thunder will have a few weeks to itself as Jurassic World: Dominion will have tapered off by then and Top Gun: Maverick might have slowed down (Who knows when this will happen though, lol). Jordan Peele’s Nope comes out three weeks after Thor: Love and Thunder but will likely serve as counterprogramming than direct competition – that will be Bullet Train at the beginning of August. 

Disadvantages: 

  • Front-loaded. A general rule of thumb with MCU heavyweights is that the bigger the film feels, the more front-loaded the film will be – however, it doesn’t always go that way. Thor: Ragnarok was front-loaded and had steep drops throughout its run – with a more volatile box office market, this may be something that Thor: Love and Thunder struggles to overcome. 
  • The real world elements that are simply outside of the films control – it may sound foolish to note them in this article but they absolutely have a direct result on the final tally. Inflation, cost of living, Ukraine – Russia conflict, political unrest, etc. I don’t want to get into those topics but it will upset the potential of the worldwide box office. It is already banned in China and not releasing in Russia, which are key markets. Taika Waititi has expressed some more direct LGBTQ+ elements being in this film and if so, we may see this being banned in some countries.

If I have to mention real-world issues as a disadvantage then you must know that the film has a lot of positives going for it which will result in favourable box office results. 

FINAL PREDICTIONS:

Domestic Box Office:

Opening Weekend: $165 million

Total: $430 million

International Box Office

Total: $500 million

Worldwide Box Office

Total: $930 million

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