I have always had a passion to follow the box office since 2008 and I have closely monitored it for 15 years. One of the aspects I really love to explore is the potential of upcoming films and I know some box office geeks love this content and others hate it. I understand both sides as it is always interesting to forecast how high particular films can reach but also, you can’t possibly predict it accurately due to various variables. While that may be true, I truly believe we can ballpark the figure in an accurate range.
Avatar 3 Box Office Potential?
When it comes to Avatar 3, we have plenty of data to work from since Avatar: The Way of Water just dominated the box office to reach #3 all-time worldwide at $2.31 billion as of right now. We also are well aware of some of the factors that either enhanced that box office performance or reduced the potential for it. Before we laugh at what my box office prediction is, lets just remember that in March 2021, I accurately predicted that Avatar: The Way of Water would be the first film since the Covid-19 pandemic to surpass the $2 Billion milestone. I will explore the box office advantages and disadvantages that the film will have for its run, beginning in 2024.
- Likely the biggest factor that withheld Avatar: The Way of Water was the limitation from the China market. While dealing with a major Covid-19 outbreak at the time alongside a zero tolerance policy from its government, only 60-69% of theatres were open during that time alongside other precautions. It still managed a mighty $245.9M, which was considered huge when you understand the circumstances and it’s likely this won’t be the case in late 2024 so potential for Avatar 3 could surge to the $500M+ area.
- I know it is the cool thing to hate the movies that perform exceptionally well – we saw it with Avatar (2009), Avengers: Endgame and Titanic. While, The Way of Water gets its bit of reasonable criticism and judgment from critics and moviegoers. The overall majority have provided exceptional good word of mouth for the film – hence the ridiculous box office multiplier it had at the domestic and international box office. Oh, and it was nominated for Best Picture. Expect this to have significant positive impact for the third installment.
- Avatar: The Way of Water had to do its job in re-introducing audiences (old and new) to its universe and provide a justification to become a fully fledged franchise. Ultimately, what Avatar: The Way of Water does is that it sets the table with different plot beats in order for the audience to anticipate what’s coming next unlike Avatar (2009).
- One of the biggest positive contributors for both Avatar (2009) and Avatar: The Way of Water was the exceptional use of CGI and the jumps they make for technology in filmmaking. While I do expect Avatar 3 to be absolutely sensational with the Visual Effects and it will obviously win at the Oscars for it but what is missing? It is the big leap it has made in visual effects and technology. This limits one of the major incentives that the Avatar franchise had as casual moviegoers will appear more numb to that level of visual effects.
- That’s it.
Do not message me telling me the story is bad or it is has no pop culture footprint. Y’all were proven wrong about this and that the Avatar franchise is a cinematic spectacle that audiences worldwide respect regardless about your personal feelings about it.
Current Box Office Prediction
Everything is lining up for Avatar 3 to do exceptionally well at the box office and I do not see much deterrent’s at this stage. Based on the current information available, I will say that the potential Avatar 3 is insanely high and that our current box office prediction is $2.5 – $2.8 billion worldwide and $700 – 800M domestic.
Also, an FYI, there have been whispers from people working on the film here in New Zealand that Avatar 3 is significantly better than the prior to films and where it really begins to take off.
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