How will The Flash perform at the box office? In our long-range box office forecast, we are going to take a look at how it’ll take on the domestic and worldwide box office.
Going back to the beginning of the year, I predicted this film would do just under $500M. Was I right in thinking that? Well, there was the entire Ezra Miller issues to consider which I figured meant limited press for the film. Consistent reshoots and on-set drama being reported. DCEU abolished as we move into a DCU’s Chapter One: Gods and Monsters. There was really nothing working in the films favour.
Don’t get me wrong, those issues still very much exist, more or less. So what’s changed? Well, James Gunn said the film was “f—cking amazing” and says it is one of the best superhero movies he has ever seen. Tom Cruise loved the film so much he cold-called the director to tell him it is everything you want in a movie and the kind of movie the world needs right now. Warner Bros showed the film in its entirety at CinemaCon – which was met was with highly positive and encouraging critics reactions.
Obviously, it is excellent that the film does appear to be a great movie and that will certainly boast in its favour. The important question is, how much? That’s what we’ll dive into here. Firstly, how can it be compared to recent DC/DCEU films.
Box Office Performance for DC and DCEU movies:
- Aquaman: $67.8M Opening Weekend, $335M Domestic and $1.14B Worldwide
- Wonder Woman: $103.2M Opening Weekend, $412.8M Domestic and $822.8M Worldwide
- Man of Steel: $116M Opening Weekend, $291M Domestic and $668M Worldwide
- The Batman: $134M Opening Weekend, $369.3M Domestic and $770.9M Worldwide
- Shazam!: $53.5M Opening Weekend, $140.3M Domestic and $365.9M Worldwide
- Joker: $96.2M Opening Weekend, $335.4M Domestic and $1.07B Worldwide
- Black Adam: $67M Opening Weekend, $168.1M Domestic and $393.2M Worldwide
These are all based in origin films for major characters in DC Comics and the results are all skewed across the board. The Flash may not have the same level of name recognition or brand awareness of Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman or Joker but if there is a tier 2 among DC Comics characters, you can bet that Flash would be on it alongside Aquaman. Funnily enough, Aquaman is the highest grossing film on this list and by a fair margin. It was a holiday season release so naturally lower opening with a leggy run but still, factor in the DOM vs INT percentage difference because that is what billion dollar movies are made of. Joker and Aquaman sure aren’t the highest grossing domestic movies here but they earned so many dollars offshore.
Perhaps even more interesting with those two movies is the fact that neither are certified fresh films on Rotten Tomatoes (65% for Aquaman & 69% for Joker) and the audience scores aren’t anything impressive either (72% for Aquaman & 88% for Joker). The Joker’s IMDB rating places it in the top 250 films all-time on the website so no doubt the audience loved it. Aquaman is a little more puzzling and must be traced back to its time of release. Releasing during the Christmas/New Years period can be huge for a film as it only dropped 23.2% in its second weekend allowing longevity in the domestic market. However, the real key to Aquaman’s success was $291M pulled in from China.
So, we land back at The Flash where it appears to have similar ingredients to the successful films – origin story for tier 1/2 character in DC Comics and high praise from all parties. However, let’s discuss what also separates The Flash from those films beyond the points noted above, this makes our box office forecast tough to interpret. Michael Keaton and his portrayal of Batman is being highly marketed and will likely draw in extra interest to the film. Nostalgia works and we’ve seen it time and time again.
It’s true struggle will be the competition it faces before and after its release. Upon its opening weekend – Fast X, The Little Mermaid, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Transformers: Rise of the Beasts – will all be in cinemas. It opens alongside Elemental and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One will quickly be on the horizon.
The chances to break out in the domestic market appear quite high, especially with the encouraging praise we are hearing and the early fan screenings that begin at the end of May. The international gross is the more curious part and China will be an important market for it if it has hopes to be a billion dollar film. With Fast X, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts and local films in the market during its tenure then I don’t see any room for a high performance there.
Our Box Office Forecast for The Flash:
Domestic Box Office:
Opening Weekend: $95 million
Total: $225 million
Worldwide Box Office:
Total: $640 million
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