How will “Barbie” perform at the box office? In our long-range box office forecast, we are going to take a look at how it’ll take on the domestic and worldwide box office (see below).
Barbie
Debuting on a hugely anticipated weekend alongside “Oppenheimer”, “Barbie” has generated a massive audience lead-up. Originally, there were lots in favour of “Barbie” including a behind-the-scenes crew likely to craft a good film, an incredible amount of star power from the ensemble cast, and it being based on the highest-selling toys of all time.
Being less than a month away from its release, what else have they added to its repertoire? Besides the world’s supply of pink paint. An extremely impressive marketing campaign which is generating extremely promising social media metrics – we’ll go into this later. This is partially due to its visually attractive style and meme-driven social activity.
Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling are the leads of the film; they’re a-list calibre actors but their recent box office runs (as leads or co-leads) wouldn’t suggest so:
Margot Robbie:
- Babylon – $15.3M Domestic & $63.3M Worldwide.
- Amsterdam – $14.9M Domestic & $31.2M Worldwide.
- The Suicide Squad – $55.8M Domestic & $168.7M Worldwide.
- Birds of Prey – $84.1M Domestic & $205.3M Worldwide.
- Bombshell – $31.7M Domestic & $61.4M Worldwide.
Ryan Gosling:
- First Man – $44.9M Domestic & $105.7M Worldwide.
- Blade Runner 2049 – $92M Domestic & $267.7M Worldwide.
- La La Land – $151.1M Domestic & $471.9M Worldwide.
- The Nice Guys – $36.2M Domestic & $62.7M Worldwide.
- The Big Short – $70.2M Domestic & $133.4M Worldwide.
I won’t go into each performance and add context irrelevant to the main point which is the lead actor. Obviously, box office flops aren’t solely blamed towards the actor as it is important to understand the nuances. However, when three of your last five films that you have been a lead or co-lead in have abysmally failed. In Margot Robbie’s case, “Amsterdam” and “Babylon” are BOTH in the top 5 box office bombs for 2022 – resulting in a combined $195.8 million loss. Whilst I don’t believe it, questioning if Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling are box office draws is a valid question.
While I think this will be a MASSIVE hit domestically, I am a lot more sceptical about the international audience for this one. International audiences don’t align with comedies as much as domestic audiences. I’ll use a mixture of examples from the highest-grossing pure comedies and light-hearted PG-13 and crude R-Rated ones. Between “Meet the Parents”, “Meet the Fockers”, “Bruce Almighty”, “The Hangover” and “The Hangover Part II” – the average international percentage of a total worldwide box office run was 48.74%. It’ll be tough to exactly gauge how well it will perform internationally.
When discussing the box office forecast during this intense weekend, nuance is required to get complete context and understanding. I’ll digest the advantages and disadvantages for “Barbie”:
Box Office Advantages:
- Strong initial pre-sales selling out cinemas already in major US markets – tracking ahead of this year’s “The Little Mermaid” by 46 percent. Thursday previews already looking to draw in around $13-14M based on tracking.
- An incredible marketing campaign which has certainly been aggressive and captured various audiences has led to incredibly high social metrics – particularly on Instagram, Twitter and TikTok. The movie having lots of meme-driven content prior to release is amusing but you can’t deny it increases exposure and interest.
- Barbie is a brand that has been around for 64 years and is one of, if not, the highest-selling toy of all time. Appealing to multiple generations of women – an extremely strong factor in its box office performance. The summer hasn’t provided many films tailored to women and we have seen many films have very strong legs when this has happened. Hell, “Bridesmaids” made over 6x its opening weekend figure. There is always a strong market for women and “Barbie” should cater to that nicely.
Box Office Disadvantages:
- PLF screens aren’t going to benefit Barbie very much as “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1” and “Oppenheimer” will own those throughout the weekend. This may halt some of its higher potential but if word of mouth catches on, it may pressure exhibitors to put films on some PLF screens.
- While the marketing campaign has certainly been impressive and aggressive, the family-friendly vibes in trailers may not represent the thematics of the real film. There is a mature tone and under Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s script, it will likely have thought-provoking material under the surface. Will this catch on with general audiences and will it stop families to see the film?
Our Box Office Forecast for Barbie:
Domestic Box Office:
Opening Weekend: $150 million
Total: $400 million
Worldwide Box Office:
Total: $900 million
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