Home » Long Range Box Office Forecast: Elemental Prediction

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Elemental Prediction

How will Elemental perform at the box office? In our long-range box office forecast, we are going to take a look at how it’ll take on the domestic and worldwide box office.


It seems like Sony and Dreamworks are now the king of animation as Pixar appears to have another dud on its hands – both financially and critically. I mean, I have never expected much of this film as the initial concept felt a little easy; or, a little easy. My prediction last year was $45M DOM opening, $140M DOM total and $400M WW total.

As fun as it might be to toot my own horn and be close in the range of all of those figures (as per the tracking), it isn’t something I want for Pixar. Perhaps it is the wake-up call they need to get their film quality back on par with their extremely high reputation, who knows. If we want to compare to historical figiures, Pixar has been fairly inconsistent for a few years and it may not be fair to place comparisons with this. It isn’t apples and oranges; the variables prior to Elemental’s release were day-and-date release model, Covid-19 pandemic shutting down all cinemas or 45 days cinema exclusivity. Both which, do not apply to Elemental’s release.

Past Original Pixar Releases:

  • Lightyear: $50.5M DOM Opening, $118.3M DOM Total & $226.4M WW Total
  • Turning Red: N/A DOM, $20.1M WW Total
  • Luca: N/A DOM, $49.7M WW Total
  • Soul: N/A DOM, $121M WW Total
  • Onward: $39.1M DOM Opening, $61.5M DOM Total & $141.9M WW Total
  • Coco: $50.8M DOM Opening, $210M DOM Total & 807.8M WW Total

Again, there are far too many variables to really pull estimates for Elemental but as far as reputation goes, you can argue that only Coco and Soul really live up to the high pedestal of Pixar. At this stage, it seems like Elemental comes nowhere close as it currently has 64% on Rotten Tomatoes form 14 reviews following a mediocre Cannes Film Festival debut.

Our Box Office Forecast for Elemental:

Domestic Box Office:

Opening Weekend: $36 million

Total: $105 million

Worldwide Box Office:

Total: $330 million

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