Long-Range Box Office Forecast: Fast X Prediction

How will Fast X perform at the box office? In our long-range box office forecast, we are going to take a look at how it’ll take on the domestic and worldwide box office.

Fast X

The Fast and Furious franchise has been around for a long time and at least with the main narrative, is beginning to overstay its welcome. Fast X is supposedly the penultimate of the franchise (we’ll see) so that could impose some interesting box office implications. From a box office perspective, the Fast and Furious franchise has certainly been through a roller-coaster. It’s had really low downs and incredibly high ups. The franchise appears to have reached its ceiling and is on a slippery slope downhill – albeit, Covid-19 massively affected the F9.

Let’s take a look at the history domestically:

• The Fast and the Furious – $144.7M
• 2 Fast 2 Furious – $127.1M
• The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift – $62.5M
• Fast & Furious – $155M
• Fast Five – $209.8M
• Fast & Furious 6 – $238.6M
• Furious 7 – $353M
• The Fate of the Furious: $226M
• F9: The Fast Saga: $173M

We won’t hold any weight towards that low debut for F9: The Fast Saga as it was paving the way for the return of films in cinemas. However, you can still see that the franchise was already coming down after Furious 7 so where exactly does Fast X stand?

This will be one of the most interesting box office stories of 2023 so let’s break down the current advantages and disadvantages for Fast X’s upcoming box office run:

Advantages

• The Fast and Furious franchise has a universal awareness to it so this alone will help in filling the seats at cinemas. There isn’t much franchises that have had such a universal appeal.
• In terms of general popularity – the biggest cast ensemble yet. The franchise continues to expand its heavy roster with very popular actors which immediately injects an elevated level of appeal for the casual cinemagoer.
• International Box Office will need to once again take a huge lead for this franchise to help push this film high in the Fast and Furious hierarchy. The Fate of the Furious had a huge drop domestically after Furious 7 but it still made over $1B internationally. $392M of that came from China so that market is huge for this franchise. Hell, Fast X may not need the domestic market to get to that milestone.

Disadvantages

• The Fast and Furious franchise reputation certainly is divisive and it’s fair share of criticism is loudly heard. However, this usually doesn’t have too much impact on the franchise – I think the real question is how they can elevate this film (They literally went to space in F9: The Fast Saga). If we are talking about the quality of this film, the director issues at the beginning of filming may affect this. We’ll see.
• I think this is the right time to ask if there is franchise fatigue for Fast and Furious. We’re seeing a domestic decline for the franchise and while the international totals are exceptional, still on the decline. Will Fast X continue the trend or will it elevate the franchise to further heights? We’ve seen this franchise go up and down consistently.
• Fast X generally relies on huge frontloading as they have low multipliers and drop significantly pretty quickly. There will still be heavy competition in consecutive weeks following Fast X’s release – The Little Mermaid, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. Mostly targeting families and young audiences, it isn’t direct competition but those releases will steal premium screens as well as the number of theatres and sessions.
• China is the biggest market for the Hollywood franchise which may pose as an issue. We have seen significant declines in the China box office market over the past year due to Covid-19 concerns and that may still be issue for the foreseeable future. However, with Fast and Furious being one of the biggest Hollywood franchises in China, could this be the one to revive Hollywood in that market?

Our Box Office Forecast for Fast X:

Domestic Box Office:

Opening Weekend: $78 million

Total: $165 million

Worldwide Box Office:

Total: $835 million

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