How will Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny perform at the box office? In our long-range box office forecast, we are going to take a look at how it’ll take on the domestic and worldwide box office.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Disney thought they had a hit on the hands – almost embodying the confidence that Paramount had in Top Gun: Maverick. It’s tough to blame the studio for that though as it carries on the legacy of such an iconic character with Harrison Ford returning and James Mangold at the helm. Debuting at Cannes FIlm Festival a couple of months before release, it debuted to very mild reviews as it currently has 54% of 48 reviews.
That may not be significantly bad enough to move the needle for its opening weekend, but it certainly will affect casual moviegoing audiences showing up to the film or not. Based on the early tracking, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny look like it will be opening to a 5-day $60M opening which could go upwards to $70M. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull earned $100.1M over the 3-day weekend and $151.9M in total over the five days.
Tracking metrics used for John Wick: Chapter 4 were double what is being used with Dial of Destiny so an opening weekend massively above this is unlikely. Disney is going to need to overcome the middling reception for Dial of Destiny following the Cannes debut. Factor in the amount of intense competition prior to release and after release, Dial of Destiny is destined to be a box office flop – especially when you consider the $300M budget.
If the casual moviegoing audience has a reception similar to how critics appear to be feeling about the film then its box office legs will be very short – considering the 144-minute runtime and a bunch of competition sharing the same targeted audience.
Past Indiana Jones Performances:
- The Raiders of the Lost Ark – $8.3M OW, $248.1M DOM, & $389.9M WW
- The Temple of Doom – $25.3 OW, $179.8M DOM, & $333.1 WW
- The Last Crusade – $29.3M OW, $197M DOM, & $474.1M WW
- The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull – $100.1M OW, $317.1M DOM, & $790.6M WW
It is unwise to use historical relevant franchise data from any Indiana Jones film except for Kingdom of the Crystal Skull as the film industry is completely different and so is the relationship it has with worldwide audiences. Let’s see how it compares when you adjust for inflation.
Past Indiana Jones Performances (adjusted for inflation):
- he Raiders of the Lost Ark – $27.7M OW, $827.99M DOM & $1.3B WW
- The Temple of Doom – $73.8M OW, $524.9M DOM & $972.5M WW
- The Last Crusade – $71.6M OW, $481.9M DOM & $1.16B WW
- The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull – $141M OW, $446.8M DOM & $1.11B WW
When you adjust for inflation you really do get perspective on how much of a mammoth the Indiana Jones franchise is. This is when you feel that the $60M tracking data for the Dial of Destiny is actually quite disappointing. Factor in a semi-long runtime, mild critical reviews and heavy competition on both sides of the release, the long-term outlook doesn’t look great.
What is the one difference that Dial of Destiny has on its side that the other Indiana Jones didn’t have? The international box office marketplace boom following the 2008 recession. Can Dial of Destiny carve out a space in major international markets to make up for what is likely a disappointing domestic performance? Kingdom of Crystal Skill got a huge $473M international total and the market has grown massively since then. I’d argue that Dial of Destiny doesn’t even cross that mark considering the negative factors noted above.
Our Box Office Forecast for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Domestic Box Office:
Opening Weekend: $52.5 million
Total: $140 million
Worldwide Box Office:
Total: $445 million
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