How will The Super Mario Bros. Movie perform at the box office? In our long-range box office forecast, we are going to take a look at how it’ll take on the domestic and worldwide box office.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie is based on a Nintendo video game franchise ‘Mario’ – it is currently the biggest-selling video game franchise of all time with 826 million copies sold so it already has an extremely high awareness rate and passionate fanbase.
The film does open on a Wednesday so I will do a 3-day and 5-day opening prediction for this. With an apparent $48M budget for Universal Pictures, the potential for profits is SUPER high here – so I will be diving into the advantages and disadvantages of The Super Mario Bros. Movie’s upcoming box office run:
Advantages:
- Appeal and Awareness – the Nintendo franchise is a massive brand in the gaming sector and has an almost-universal awareness factor to it. The appeal is trending strongly towards families where it is expected to dominate.
- Demand – March has had a slew of male-dominated films (Creed III, Shazam! Fury of the Gods and John Wick: Chapter 4) and other genre films (Dungeons & Dragons: Honor among Thieves, Cocaine Bear and Scream VI). There is significant demand for a family-friendly flick since Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and the release through Easter Weekend is great timing due to no direct competition until The Little Mermaid and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
- Runtime for the film is only 92 minutes which means more sessions throughout the day and more people to put in seats. Given the nature of animated family films and the franchise the film is based on, this should play well for its box office opening potential.
Disadvantages:
- Chris Pratt’s casting has caused a backlash from several different groups for a multitude of reasons that we don’t need to delve into. However, it’s worth noting that this COULD play a role in the opening for the film and it may need to rely on word of mouth over general interest levels.
- Video game films are still known to be poorly translated to the medium of film and there is no guarantee that The Super Mario Bros. Movie scores well with critics and audiences so, in terms of staying power, we’ll have to see. If early indications from critics are poor then expect a significant drop in the potential of its opening weekend.
Our Box Office Forecast for The Super Mario Bros. Movie:
Domestic Box Office:
Opening Weekend (3-Day): $82 million
Opening Weekend (5-Day):104 million
Total: $325 million
Worldwide Box Office:
Total: $835 million
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