In this weekend’s box-office forecast, we are going to take a look at how “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” will fare at the domestic box office for the upcoming weekend. The Barbenheimer weekend has long been anticipated whether it’s through the exciting talent coming to the screens or the memes the weekend has produced. On the backend of the summer, the box office needs a win and Barbenheimer is about to do just that.
Oppenheimer
Christopher Nolan has become a household name and perhaps has the most influence as a director when it comes to the box office. The track record speaks to itself – even incorporating “Tenet” which was released in the worst time of the pandemic. A lot of the attractiveness that comes from Nolan’s films is the experience factor and it being elevated through IMAX – an important selling point to “Oppenheimer”.
With exclusive IMAX sessions, that ticket surcharge will certainly help its box office record especially inside a loaded schedule. However, the whole ‘Barbenheimer’ aspect seems to play into perfect counterprogramming and many are planning a double feature with the two films. It has really played into the marketing of both films while adding an extra level of excitement for the movies. Also supported by the fact that both films are being perceived to be high quality movies from talented filmmakers.
“Oppenheimer” may not have the massive opening that “Barbie” is expected to have but it will likely have very good legs through the rest of the summer period. However, it currently is tracking for around $8M – $9-10M in Thursday Previews so it has a shot for $60M+. Excellent for a film that is 180 minutes long, a historical biopic with B&W scenes and releasing amidst popular-IP competition.
Barbie
Surprise of the year for a box office performance will undoubtedly be “Barbie” when all is said and done; our projections have continued to go up week on week. Now it is reaching stratospheric heights where it has potential to be the highest grossing Warner Brothers film in history – that title currently belongs to “Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice” ($166M Opening Weekend). Pre-sales is currently tracking for $25M+ for Thursday previews.
So why has “Barbie” reached these insane levels of anticipation? Of course, the Barbenheimer event/meme has translated far beyond the small circle of passionate moviegoers like ourselves and created momentum for a double feature moviegoing weekend. Beyond that, Barbie itself, the brand is incredibly popular which represents one of the best selling toys of all-time. The name ‘Barbie’ is a household name, incredibly iconic with a strong global reach as it is sold to over 160 countries.
“Barbie” has also been at the forefront of internet memes and ironic posts which spread far and wide across social media. You combine this with the global popularity of the ‘Barbie’ brand and include the film being headlined by Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling then you have a recipe for box office magic. To further elevate the magic, it is supported by the talents of Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach. They may not be household names but are a sheer force in screenwriting and filmmaking which add reassurance that the film will be of quality – critical reactions adhere to this.
Overall, based on critical reactions so far, it seems we are all in for two great and uniquely different films this weekend. Hopefully the box office landscape reflects the excitement and we expect it to be a huge weekend for both films, in their own way. However, “Barbie” is on a completely different level.
Oppenheimer:
- International Opening Prediction: $85M
- Worldwide Opening Prediction: $168M
Barbie:
- International Opening Prediction: $178M
- Worldwide Opening Prediction: $338M
Weekend Box Office Forecast for July 21-23, 2023:
| Movie: | Weekend Forecast: |
|---|---|
| Barbie | $160,000,000 |
| Oppenheimer | $78,000,000 |
| Sound of Freedom | $23,900,000 |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 | $23,850,000 |
| Elemental | $7,300,000 |
| Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | $7,250,000 |
| Insidious: The Red Door | $5,900,000 |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | $4,450,000 |
| Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | $2,250,000 |
| No Hard Feelings | $2,050,000 |
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