We have arrived at the final month of a extremely run of Box Office delights – from the success of Creed III, Scream VI and John Wick: Chapter 4 to the bombing of Shazam! Fury of the Gods. Can Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves make one last surprise for the months? Check out our weekend box office forecast below.
Let’s take a look at the big stories for the box office this upcoming weekend:
Now I recently, in my long-range forecasting, I predicted the outlook for Dungeons & Dragons looked pretty dim from a box office perspective. Now from a word of mouth perspective, that is a very different story and history shows that the biggest influence over a box office performance is the word of mouth it carries through the casual moviegoing audience.
As of right now, it holds a 90% rating from critics and 93% audience rating which is exceptional and delightful surprise. I initially predicted that the opening weekend from the film would around the $27M range but it seems that with a very active release marketing plan that the number will be higher. Thursday preview night scored a total of $5.6M and it looks like it could hit $40M for its opening weekend. Enough to push John Wick off the top of the table.
John Wick: Chapter 4
After an amazing debut for John Wick: Chapter 4, it looks to have a semi significant drop – well, at least the highest drop for the franchise, which should be around the 55-59% mark. John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum dropped 56.7% on its second weekend but that was Memorial Day Weekend so it had a public holiday to make up lost earnings.
The drop isn’t anything to worry about and the film should still earn a x3 multiplier to get at least $220M – as long as it stabilizes after the second weekend drop. With raving critic reviews and excellent word of mouth, I do not expect significant drops at all after this. However, I will say that the box office dailies haven’t been extremely reassuring but I still trust it’ll deliver.
Here is my Weekend Box Office Forecast:
|Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves||$41,500,000|
|John Wick: Chapter 4||$30,850,000|
|Shazam! Fury of the Gods||$5,150,000|
|His Only Son||$4,500,000|
|Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania||$1,300,000|
Weekend Box Office Forecast for March 31- April 2, 2023
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