In this weekend box office forecast, we are going to take a look at how Fast X will take on the domestic box office for this upcoming weekend as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 continues its strong run.
Fast X starts the road to a long, dense summer movie release slate. In fact, I believe there is a mid to high profile release every single week until the inevitable Barbie vs Oppenheimer box office battle. Regardless, exhibitors will be grinning as a massive wave of highly anticipated projects touch the silver screen and us film enthusiasts, get to enjoy every moment (hopefully).
I have covered Fast X history at the box office fairly extensively in my long range forecasting and it was clear there was a noticeable downward trend for the franchise. In particularly, the domestic market had a major shift in both opening weekend and the over domestic total from Furious 7 till now. The real question is where does this trend go? What is the ongoing narrative?
There are multiple facets to those questions. Firstly, I propose the question, can we truly trust the domestic total and opening for F9: The Fast Saga? It released in the midst of a box office rebuild through the Covid-19 Pandemic era. There are questions surrounding that and if it can be used to attest to this film. Secondly, the film is essentially a predecessor to the final film of the franchise. Under that knowledge alone, Fast X will be able to get a few extra people into those seats. The previous films never had that element to add to its anticipation amongst regular filmgoers.
It is quite clear that the fanbase surrounding the Fast and Furious franchise has lowered in numbers over the years – a Fast and Furious fatigue if you will. The real issue with this is that it is very rare for this franchise to have any type of leggy run as they are historically very front-loaded – even F9: The Fast Saga had this. With stiff competition incoming and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 dominating word of mouth, this could be a very tough run coming for the Fast X. It relies so heavily on the international side of things, where it is being projected for $300M+ globally.
Weekend Box Office Forecast for May 19-21, 2023:
|Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3||$33,300,000|
|The Super Mario Bros. Movie||$10,500,000|
|Book Club: The Next Chapter||$2,800,000|
|Evil Dead Rise||$2,500,000|
|Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret||$1,300,000|
|John Wick: Chapter 4||$1,150,000|
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