In this weekend’s box-office forecast, we are going to take a look at how “Gran Turismo” will fare in its opening weekend amidst National Cinema Day. Is there potential for a breakout here? We’ll run through the advantages and disadvantages for this weekend box office forecast.
Advantages of Gran Turismo’s Release
1. Strong IP from Video Game Franchise: Gran Turismo, the latest release from Sony Pictures, holds the advantage of being based on a massive and beloved video game franchise, making it a highly anticipated movie among gaming enthusiasts and fans.
2. Targeting Car and Racing Enthusiasts: With a central focus on cars and racing, the movie appeals to a dedicated audience of car enthusiasts and racing fans, likely driving footfalls from this niche.
3. Positive Audience Response from Early Access: Gran Turismo’s early access screenings have garnered a positive audience response, building awareness and potentially driving positive word-of-mouth recommendations.
4. IMAX Presence and PLF Offering: The movie’s presence in IMAX cinemas and premium large-format (PLF) screenings can contribute to additional revenue through higher ticket prices, especially as other releases wind down.
Challenges Faced by Gran Turismo
1. Lackluster Marketing and Cheesy Trailers: The marketing campaign for Gran Turismo has faced challenges, with trailers failing to generate excitement and being criticized for their cheesy portrayal.
2. Impact of Industry Strikes: The ongoing sag AFTRA and WGA strikes have prevented actors and writers from participating in promotional activities, hindering the movie’s ability to leverage star power for marketing.
3. National Cinema Day Pricing: While National Cinema Day can attract audiences with its $4 per ticket pricing, it remains to be seen whether the movie can attract a substantial audience to make up for the lower ticket prices.
4. Weekend Timing and School Start: National Cinema Day falls on a Sunday, the day before school and workweek, might affect evening business, causing it to underperform compared to a Saturday release like last year’s National Cinema Day.
Weekend Box Office Forecast and Tracking
Despite facing challenges, Gran Turismo is expected to take the number one spot at the box office this weekend. With a budget of $60 million, the movie has the potential to resonate with a similar audience to franchises like Fast and Furious, likely leading to a dominant opening day with significant front-loading throughout the weekend.
However, the tracking for Gran Turismo has been lowered over time, with initial expectations of $15 million diminishing. The movie’s 60% rating on Rotten Tomatoes might still aid in generating word-of-mouth recommendations and influencing audience attendance.
In a competitive landscape where Barbie and Oppenheimer continue to hold a significant presence in their sixth weekend, Gran Turismo’s success will depend on its ability to leverage its video game IP, capitalize on early positive responses, and navigate the challenges posed by the current industry climate and weekend timing.
Weekend Box Office Forecast for August 25-27, 2023:
| Movie: | Weekend Forecast: |
|---|---|
| Gran Turismo | $17,000,000 |
| Barbie | $15,500,000 |
| Blue Beetle | $12,200,000 |
| Oppenheimer | $8,100,000 |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem | $7,000,000 |
| Strays | $4,500,000 |
| Meg 2: The Trench | $4,000,000 |
| Haunted Mansion | $2,400,000 |
| Talk to Me | $2,400,000 |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 | $2,200,000 |
Subscribe to the MovieGainz Email Newsletter and never miss out on our box updates including forecasting, predictions and analysis.
