In this weekend’s box-office forecast, we are going to take a look at how “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” will fare at the domestic box office for the upcoming weekend as “The Flash”, “Elemental” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” continue their runs. It is getting a little depressing forecasting such poor numbers for movies with insanely inflated production budgets but let’s get into it. We’ll just be looking at the 3-Day weekend.
Right off the bat, this film has a budget of $294.7M and the print and ad copies were about $140-150M so we must keep that in perspective when considering this film’s performance at the box office – it is all relative.
Debuting at Cannes to very mild reviews, Harrison Ford’s final Indiana Jones movie was always facing an uphill battle as not-so-great word of mouth began to spread. Currently, it sits at 68% on Rotten Tomatoes which is certainly an improvement but not enough to move the needle for critical word of mouth. With over 500 verified reviews, the audience score sits at 89% which is fine. It seems this movie can’t rely on word of mouth to catch up to its hefty expenses.
“Dial of Destiny” managed to get $7.2M on Thursday Night previews which set it up for a weekend that can have a $50M-low to $70M-high. As opening night trends towards $24M, we will need to see how well it can hold up throughout the weekend. The Indiana Jones franchise’s target audience is mostly aligned towards older men and that is amplified by the nostalgic factor taken into consideration. That leads me to believe that significant weekend backloading is definitely possible.
When looking at the past Indiana Jones performances at the box office, it seems very likely that it will be the lowest-grossing film in the franchise – and that is without the grosses being adjusted for inflation. Absolutely crazy. For reference:
- The Raiders of the Lost Ark – $248.1M DOM.
- The Temple of Doom – $179.8M DOM.
- The Last Crusade – $197M DOM.
- The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull – $317.1M DOM.
Heading overseas, it looks like it will come close to the domestic weekend with around $75-95M for the weekend but when looking at China is when it becomes very concerning. As it is tracking alongside The Little Mermaid – a film that can’t get to the $4M mark in that market.
Weekend Box Office Forecast for June 30-July 02, 2023:
|Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny||$58,500,000|
|Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse||$12,500,000|
|No Hard Feelings||$7,500,000|
|Transformers: Rise of the Beasts||$5,500,000|
|Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken||$5,000,000|
|The Little Mermaid||$4,500,000|
|Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3||$1,750,000|
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