In this weekend’s box-office forecast, we are going to take a look at how “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1” will fare at the domestic and worldwide box office for the upcoming weekend. July has a pool of highly anticipated tentpole films and we are one weekend away from the incredible ‘Barbenheimer’.
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1
In a last minute bid to get PLF exclusivity, Tom Cruise’s Dead Reckoning moves into an awkward 5-Day Opening as the film officially releases on Wednesday 12th July. Previews for the film are happening on the Tuesday and currently look like around $8-9M as it heads towards a franchise-high opening weekend – both domestically and globally (albeit, it is officially based on 5 day counts, not 3 days – so an asterisk is warranted).
This may sound like a good thing but it is quite underwhelming based on the surrounding facts. For instance, PLF screens almost all disappear next week, Barbie/Oppenheimer is dominating social media metrics, and the international market concerns. Nevertheless, we are here to discuss the opening for this weekend only and not project the long-term final figure for the film but I can’t empathise how important the opening weekend for the film is.
Following the outrageous success of Top Gun: Maverick last year, Tom Cruise’s beloved Mission: Impossible franchise will see a neat little boost in major markets. Alongside this, it currently has a very strong 97% on Rotten Tomatoes which should play nicely through its run as audiences, new and old, have a sense of faith in the franchise.
It is no secret that the market has been desperate for a huge player to come in and dominate the screens as the box office has been brutal for tentpole films such as “The Flash” and “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”. Perhaps, “Dead Reckoning Part 1” is that saviour or is it Barbie or perhaps, Oppenheimer? We’ll see who comes out on top.
With a huge budget of $291M, inflated by Covid-related costs filming abroad, it needs a strong results from all markets. China is a lucrative market for the franchise as “Mission: Impossible – Fallout” pulled in $181M in 2018 which was a significant contribution to its $791M total. We know that Hollywood flicks have taken a massive hit in that market with few films really making any significant amount and some even having insane bombs – only $3.1M for “Dial of Destiny” so far.
However, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 is currently pacing ahead of “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3” and “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” while being behind “Fast X” and “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts”. Putting it in line for a $25M-30M at this stage – will need to see how pre-sales track over the next couple of days.
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1:
- 5-Day Opening Prediction: $85M
- Worldwide Opening Prediction: $240M
Weekend Box Office Forecast for July 14-16, 2023:
| Movie: | Weekend Forecast: |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 | $65,000,000 |
| Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | $13,900,000 |
| Sound of Freedom | $13,250,000 |
| Insidious: The Red Door | $13,000,000 |
| Elemental | $8,000,000 |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | $5,750,000 |
| No Hard Feelings | $3,450,000 |
| Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | $2,900,000 |
| Joy Ride | $2,800,000 |
| The Little Mermaid | $2,400,000 |
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