Weekend Box Office Forecast: Scream VI to open at a franchise-high

March madness continues at the Domestic Box Office with the release of Scream VI as it is set to have a huge opening weekend for the Scream franchise. Check out our weekend box office forecast below. 

Let’s take a look at the big stories for the box office this upcoming weekend:

Scream VI

In back-to-back weeks where I get to say that a film will open to a franchise high is an absolutely excellent thing to acknowledge considering the last few years at the box office have been underwhelming. We are seeing mid-level franchises have huge jumps in their opening weekend, but what is far more impressive is that it is happening on back-to-back weeks. I haven’t even considered the recent success of Cocaine Beer and Jesus Revolution.

Whilst the initial tracking for the film revealed that the film would have opened at a franchise high, mostly boasted by a decent social media performance, Jenna Ortega’s celebrity appeal following the massive success of the Netflix series Wednesday and obviously, the good reception that Scream V had. Scream VI has decently high reviews (for a slasher-horror flick) at (currently) 77% on Rotten Tomatoes from 196 reviews so expect that to translate to better-staying power throughout the 3-day weekend.

Creed III should not play too heavily into direct competition with the film as the demographics that will appeal to the Creed sequel is more male-driven than Scream VI. If anything, it should serve as a smart counterprogramming for the audience and both films should flourish nicely this weekend.

Creed III

After a historic opening last weekend for Creed III as it had the largest opening for a sports film ever, look for it to have a solid second weekend. As stated, Scream VI should not take away too much of its audience where the impact is significant and based on the weekday earnings for Creed III, the second weekend shouldn’t drop too dramatically.

If we compare the second-weekend drops for Creed and Creed II which were 49.4% and 53.4%, the franchise has a history of pretty stable second-weekend drops and there is no reason to expect Creed III to do the same. However, as the film opened significantly higher than both films I expect a drop more or less around the 55% mark rather than 50%.

Here is my Weekend Box Office Forecast:

Weekend Box Office Forecast for March 10-12, 2023

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