Home » Weekend Box Office Forecast: Super Mario Bros. to Break the Video-Game Opening Weekend Record

Weekend Box Office Forecast: Super Mario Bros. to Break the Video-Game Opening Weekend Record

How will The Super Mario Bros. Movie perform at the box office? In our weekend box office forecast, we are going to take a look at how it’ll take on the domestic box office for this upcoming week.

March was an incredibly strong month at the box office with a really healthy release slate – one that we haven’t seen prior to Covid-19. That isn’t looking to slow down anytime soon – with The Super Mario Bros. Movie to be the new highest opener for 2023.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

The Super Mario Bros. Movie - Box Office Prediction - Weekend Box Office Forecast

Coming from the biggest video game in franchise in history as it has sold 826 million units across its rich history, The Super Mario Bros. Movie is looking to transcend mediums and dominate the box office. Well, looking at the metrics, projections and early tally – it looks to do exactly that. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 has the highest opening weekend for a video game film ($72M) and it is a record that Super Mario Bros. has its eyes set on. While in normal circumstances, it would completely demolish this record but the film is debuting on a Wednesday which means that its 3-Day Opening is limited.

It looks like the film will be opening with a huge $31M on the Wednesday which indicates that it will open up high. The closest film for comparison is Illumination’s own Despicable Me 2 which grossed $35M on its opening Wednesday. That film ended up grabbing $83M across its 3-Day Weekend and ending the 5-Day weekend at $143M. I don’t expect The Super Mario Bros. Movie to reach those heights but it can come mighty close or perhaps even surpass. The film achieved an ‘A’ CinemaScore which will translate to a better box office performance as the word of mouth will help – it may just push to $150M but I still need to be convinced. For the purpose of this forecast, I will only be looking at the 3-Day Opening – however, it looks like a safe bet that this film will be at around $200M+ domestically when the weekend is said and done.


Air - Box Office Prediction - Weekend Box Office Forecast

A movie that was simply floating under the radar until recent months after it debuted at SXSW to rave reviews (currently 95% on Rotten Tomatoes) alongside early screenings that are providing a strong word of mouth across the board. The marketing campaign has benefited from integrating itself with an eventful end to the NBA season and the March Madness NCAA tournament that just wrapped up. Pre-Sales are rising and it seems that Air can benefit as some counter-programming from the audience.

Here is my Weekend Box Office Forecast:

Film:Weekend Forecast:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie$146,000,000
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves$15,500,000
John Wick: Chapter 4$13,600,000
His Only Son$3,300,000
Scream VI$3,250,000
Creed III$3,000,000
Shazam! Fury of the Gods$2,000,000

Weekend Box Office Forecast for April 7-9, 2023

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