Well, here we are – the first major awards show of the 2020-21 awards season is upon us. The Golden Globes are always one of the toughest award shows to predict, particularly in this unusual year. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association always has a couple of wild cards under their sleeve – lets not forget Bohemian Rhapsody for Best Drama and Green Book for Best Musical/Comedy. The Golden Globes usually serve as the opener for the major awards shows often airing before SAGs, BAFTAS, Academy Awards and so forth.
As much as I regret to acknowledge, the Golden Globes have a rather large influence on the development of the Oscars race as it provides a chance to sway Academy members in a certain direction. While the rate of mutual winners between the Academy Awards and the Golden Globes is usually quite low – the overall Oscar conversation and Best Picture lineup usually sticks. 2020 has definitely produced some fine content with a lot of films worthy of the highest recognition – only time will tell which one can take home the top prize.
Here are my predictions for the 78th Golden Globes Awards:
BEST SCORE
- Mank
- The Midnight Sky
- News of the World
- Soul
- Tenet
Will win: Soul
Could win: Mank
Should Win: Soul
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross have definitely had a strong year composing two of the nominated films for Best Score. It is currently Soul’s award to lose – emerging as a clear frontrunner by winning the majority of the Critics Circles or Society. The bombastic, loud and unique score of Tenet could definitely sway some HFPA members. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ Soul and Mank are currently leading the pack in this category – it is possible that they split the votes and we see another winner. One rule to note in this category: Never bet against Alexandre Desplat.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
- The Croods: A New Age
- Onward
- Over the Moon
- Soul
- Wolfwalkers
Will win: Soul
Could win: Wolfwalkers
Should win: Soul
This category may appear to have a clear-cut winner in Pixar’s Soul. The film received widespread critical acclaim and is winning most of the Best Animated Feature award within Film Circles. It is not really a smart idea to ever go against Pixar either, the track record speaks for itself. Soul feels like a film that HFPA members would adore but there is still another that is quietly making its own case. Wolfwalkers could be another case of Missing Link, which snagged the award away from Toy Story 4 last year – could that be the case again?
BEST SCREENPLAY
- The Father
- Mank
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- The Trial of Chicago 7
Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could win: Promising Young Woman
Should win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
This shouldn’t be all that hard – Aaron Sorkin is one of the best working writers today and the HFPA have recognised this. Sorkin has been nominated for three Screenplay categories at the Academy Awards, he has been nominated eight times at the Golden Globes. That makes Sorkin the most nominated screenwriter at the Golden Globes, this is a tough one to beat. If anyone can cause an upset then we would like to think that Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman will take this one.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman – The Father
- Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian
- Amanda Seyfried – Mank
- Helena Zengel – News of the World
Will win: Amanda Seyfried
Could win: Olivia Colman
Should win: Helena Zengel
This is a tough category to predict as it was looking like Glenn Close was gearing up for another Oscar campaign until the film was annihilated by critics. Amanda Seyfried seems like the safe bet here despite the SAG nomination snub – she has been a huge presence with Film Critic Circles and should carry that momentum to the Globes. If Seyfried does end up taking this category then we can look to Colman as the next best bet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of Chicago 7
- Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
- Jared Leto – The Little Things
- Bill Murray – On the Rocks
- Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya
Could win: Leslie Odom Jr.
Should win: Sacha Baron Cohen
Supporting Actor is another tough category – besides Murray, you could make a case for everyone else. Paul Raci was sadly snubbed in this category – the one nominee that I could’ve made the strongest case for. Based on precursors alone, this feels like even odds between Daniel Kaluuya and Leslie Odom Jr; however, we will give the edge to Daniel Kaluuya here as Judas and the Black Messiah sadly got no love in any other category. Keep your eyes on Sacha Baron Cohen as The Trial of the Chicago 7 looks to be the hot film of the night, could that include a win for Cohen?
BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL/COMEDY
- Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Kate Hudson – Music
- Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
- Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot
- Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma.
Will win: Maria Bakalova
Could win: Rosamund Pike
Should win: Maria Bakalova
This category feels like a lock for Maria Bakalova as she has been a big presence in the precursor awards picking up wins in the Supporting and Lead Actress categories. However, the HFPA have recognised Bakalova as a lead actress which places her in a category with very little competition.
BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL/COMEDY
- Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- James Corden – The Prom
- Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton
- Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield
- Andy Samberg – Palm Springs
Will win: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Could win: Sacha Baron Cohen
Should win: Andy Samberg
Sacha Baron Cohen completely embodies the character of Borat and should be recognised for it. The thing that hesitates me from locking Cohen to win this category is that he won this category for Borat in 2006 – it feels unlikely the HFPA will repeat this. If Cohen is getting love anywhere else, my bet is on his dramatic role in The Trial of the Chicago 7. This category feels like Lin-Manuel Miranda’s to lose.
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
- Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
- Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
- Frances McDormand – Nomadland
- Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Will win: Carey Mulligan
Could win: Frances McDormand
Should win: Carey Mulligan
Carey Mulligan has been slowly building momentum with Promising Young Woman and should deservingly pick-up the win here. Promising Young Woman is showing that it is likely going to become a major Oscar contender – this should push the HFPA to side with Mulligan. This is a strong category and honestly, should be much closer than what it appears to be.
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
- Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins – The Father
- Gary Oldman – Mank
- Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian
Will win: Chadwick Boseman
Could win: Riz Ahmed
Should win: Riz Ahmed
It is easy to look at Chadwick Boseman’s Oscar campaign and point out the tragic circumstances that could influence voting members but Boseman’s performance is genuinely very good and should be recognised as such. Riz Ahmed has dominated the precursor awards amongst Critic Circles and will want to pick up this win to become the frontrunner in the Lead Actor category. Acting veteran Anthony Hopkins hasn’t won a Golden Globes nomination yet, perhaps this is his time?
BEST DIRECTOR
- Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
- David Fincher – Mank
- Regina King – One Night in Miami
- Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of Chicago 7
- Chloé Zhao – Nomadland
Will win: Chloé Zhao
Could win: David Fincher
Should win: Chloé Zhao
Chloé Zhao seems to be a quick lock for this category after completely dominating award precursors and rightfully earning critical acclaim – it is about time. 1983 was the last time a female director (Barbra Streisand) won this award and it is long overdue, everything appears to be in Zhao favour as we go head into the Golden Globes.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL/COMEDY
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Hamilton
- Music
- Palm Springs
- The Prom
Will win: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Could win: Hamilton
Should win: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Borat never won the top prize for a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes in 2006 so we are placing our faith that it’ll pick it up this time. Hamilton looks to be the only strong competition here but the film has become controversial in this awards season as the argument whether Hamilton should be considered a ‘film’ as some consider it a glorified stage production. Perhaps Palm Springs surprises?
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
- The Father
- Mank
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Will win: Promising Young Woman
Could win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: Promising Young Woman
You can never quite predict the direction that the HFPA will go with this – Bohemian Rhapsody taught me a lot of the Golden Globes in that you should think outside the box for this category. That has me locking in Promising Young Woman as the frontrunner for this category – it is a film that has style, personality and timely messages. Nomadland absolutely dominated precursor awards and will want to continue the momentum with the win here. The Trial of Chicago 7 clearly got some love through these nominations which indicate the HFPA are big advocates for the film. However, it is important to think outside the box – Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 do not align with HFPA taste (primarily based on recent winners) so I am betting against them.
Tina Fey and Amy Poehler return as hosts in the 78th Golden Globe Awards airing on February 28 at 5pm PT/8pm ET on NBC.
